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Predicto
Through the “Eyes” of a Deep Learning model

We already covered in a previous post, how important it is to deal with uncertainty in financial Deep Learning forecasts. In this post, we’ll attempt a first introduction on how we deal with explainability.

Neural networks have been applied to various tasks including stock price prediction. Although highly successfully, these models are frequently treated as black boxes. In most cases we know that the performance on the test data is satisfying, but we do not know why the model came up with a specific output.

There are cases where an “explanation” of the model’s conclusion is desirable, if not necessary…


Machine Learning and Deep Learning model predictions are used in applications running in your laptop, your desktop, your phone and even in your car or in your home. The list keeps growing as more smart devices enter our homes and lives, like smart vacuums, fridges and anything else you can imagine.

Performance monitoring is critical, as it allows to pinpoint issues early, debug and update as needed.

Photo by Volodymyr Hryshchenko on Unsplash

In Predicto, we faced a unique challenge as we started scaling. We are tracking a large number of stocks and we are experimenting with different Deep Learning models. Those models can have different…


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After you are done reading this article you will be in a position to setup your own auto stock trader based on Deep Learning forecasting. You are going to achieve this by retrieving the latest stock forecasts from Predicto API and submitting them daily to Alpaca using your own test account. You can be up and running in a couple of hours!

Introduction

A large part of stock trading is done by automated systems these days. More and more quantitative hedge funds start to appear. A search online will convince you. Hedge Funds and banks, realizing the potential of big data…


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In this post we’ll talk about time travel in some way. Forecasting is all about trying to predict what the future holds. But to do that, we need to understand the past first. Not just a still snapshot of the past, but a continuous period of time. We’ll present how we are able to visualize our Deep Learning models’ “vision” over time, kind of like a movie.

In a previous post, we gave a brief overview of how Predicto is able to provide explanations for its daily generated financial forecasts. As it turns out, this is a powerful tool. It…


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Hello again.

In this post, we want to focus on News momentum and narratives: How narratives form in preparation for a big move. We will see with examples how those narratives are sustained until they fade out or stabilize to a new equilibrium. This idea has been described in Narrative Economics book by Robert Shiller, where he tries to set a foundation on narrative economics and show how stories go viral and can drive major economic events.

In our case though, we’ll attempt to study how news momentum and narratives in daily news can drive stock prices up or down…


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In this post, we’ll share some of our thoughts on how to study market volatility and news. We’ll give you some pointers on how we at Predic.to deal with volatility and uncertainty in order to understand risk involved at any given time. This is a continuation of our series of posts about Investing + Deep Learning.

Volatility is a very important factor of the markets, and it’s wise to always be aware of it. Volatility of specific sectors and specific stocks can give you clues on what to expect next. News and events happening around the world play the most…


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In this post, I’m going to give you a brief introduction about the work we have been doing here at Predic.to. Hopefully, this is the start of a series of posts that some people might find interesting.

In the last few years, Hedge Funds and Financial Institutions have been investing in building strong Data Science and ML/DL teams. It’s no secret in those circles that there is value in using Big and Deep Data to get valuable insights about investment decisions, short term or long term.

Predic.to started as an experiment to study news, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Trying to study…

Predicto

Fully Autonomous AI for Short-Term Stock Forecasting. Based on News and Options Data. Powered by explainable Deep Learning models. https://predic.to

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